With three days of the festival already having been run, we’ve been able to assess the impact the turf is having on the racers, the way the odds have been playing out and how the whole festival experience is being handled by the jockies.
It is these extra few details which make day four of Cheltenham a little bit easier to predict. We’ve removed just three of the variables, but it has had some huge impacts on our certainty for today’s races.
1.30 JCB Triumph Hurdle
The first race of the day is actually one of the easiest to predict. We have seen the way that Apple’s Shikari raced here before and the way they handled the distance. Speed and staying power are not going to concern this horse. The only thing which could get in the way of her winning is a highly tactical and slower race. But with Geraghty knowing this way in advance, you would hope that he wouldn’t let this happen. The odds are short and with very good reason, but even at 13/8 there is some money to be made.
2.50 Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle
This is a huge race, with twenty horses all in with a shout of winning. With so much action and only two miles and seven furlongs to contain it, there might be a fair amount of bumping going on. The favourite is Santini, currently sat at 4/1, to see the latest odds, just head over to http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/events/cheltenham-festival. Having a favourite who is only in at 4/1 tells you all you need to know about this race. There could be one of five horses who realistically have a genuine chance of winning, but with the top five being paid out on an each-way bet, then we think this is very definitely worth a punt.
4.50 Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle
This is our least data driven tip. It is a tip for all of those people who love an outsider, those who rarely bet, so when they do, they do not choose the favourite. Mr Big Shot is sat at 16/1 in a twenty-four horse race. The odds are big because there is some decent competition in the field, and history is not in our favour here. The race is named after Martin Pipe and his son David Pipe has never won it. There’s no reason why he shouldn’t but this horse has only run three races. It is would be wonderfully unexpected and therefore you will currently get some amazing odds.
The fourth day of Cheltenham has allowed us to take out a few of the variables and to be a bit more certain with the odds. Two of these races are almost dead-certs, as far as the form guide and the racing opinion goes, but that means that their odds have come down. The interesting bet is in the 4.50 and the attractive 16/1 being offered for a fresh runner.